Silicon Valley is spending billions on AI tokens and nobody can agree if it's working - Business Insider
1 min read
The story
Multiple reports — from Uber's COO, Microsoft internal data, and industry observers — are converging on the thesis that AI spending is not yet delivering measurable ROI, with Uber burning its entire 2026 AI budget in four months. If this narrative gains traction and more enterprise companies echo the same, the multiple compression risk for hyperscalers and AI-adjacent names becomes real.
The case — both sides
The house read
Fade MSFT near-term as the 'AI ROI is broken' narrative builds — crowded SB consensus and insider selling leave little cushion if enterprise capex scrutiny accelerates.
Wrong ifMSFT Copilot or Azure AI numbers come in better than feared on next earnings print, or a major enterprise customer publicly endorses ROI — either would snap this short hard given the SB-heavy analyst base.
Published read · research, not advice