TSMC, ASML Kick Off Semiconductor Earnings; Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan In Financial Parade
1 min read
The story
TSMC has reported FY2024 results showing revenue of approximately $2.9 trillion TWD, a 33.9% year-over-year surge driven by relentless AI accelerator and advanced node demand. Gross margins came in at 56.1% with net margins at 40.0%, and diluted EPS of $44.67 — numbers that firmly validate the AI capex supercycle narrative that has underpinned the stock's re-rating over the past 18 months.
The earnings kickoff matters beyond TSMC itself: as the world's dominant advanced-node foundry, TSMC's revenue trajectory is a real-time read on demand from Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and Broadcom — the four largest customers collectively driving a significant portion of advanced-node utilization. ASML's print alongside it will confirm or challenge the equipment spending outlook, touching the broader semis supply chain.
The bull tension here is straightforward — if TSMC guides Q1 2025 revenue in line with or above consensus, it reaffirms that AI infrastructure spending has not hit a wall, and the stock's premium multiple is arguably still underpinned. The bear case centers on whether the 33.9% growth rate is the peak of the cycle and whether a guidance disappointment or softening CoWoS/HBM commentary triggers a multiple compression event.
Key items to watch in the earnings call: Q1 2025 revenue guidance range, CoWoS advanced packaging capacity commentary, and any color on customer inventory normalization in smartphone vs. AI segments. ASML's order book will be the secondary signal — a soft orders print would amplify concerns about capex digestion into 2025.
The case — both sides
TSMC's FY2024 gross margin of 56.1% and 33.9% revenue growth, if paired with in-line or above-consensus Q1 guidance, would confirm that advanced-node pricing power and AI demand remain structurally intact, supporting the current multiple.
At 33.9% YoY revenue growth, TSMC may already be at a cyclical peak — any Q1 guidance that shows deceleration or margin pressure from N2 ramp costs could trigger a meaningful multiple compression given the stock's premium valuation relative to historical foundry peers.
The house read
Leans bullWith TSMC printing 33.9% revenue growth and 56.1% gross margins, the question is whether Q1 2025 guidance confirms the AI-driven supercycle is intact or signals a peak-growth inflection that pressures TSM and ASML multiples.
Wrong ifA Q1 2025 revenue guide that misses consensus — or cautious CoWoS/advanced packaging capacity commentary — would signal peak growth and likely trigger a sharp de-rating given TSM's elevated forward multiple; ASML soft orders would compound the move.
Published read · research, not advice