Trump expected to tell Turkey he is ready to restore access to F-35 jets, NYT reports
1 min read
The story
The New York Times is reporting that President Trump is prepared to tell Turkish officials that the U.S. is ready to restore Turkey's access to the F-35 fighter jet program. Turkey was removed from the program in 2019 after it purchased Russia's S-400 missile defense system, a move that blocked what was originally a roughly 100-aircraft deal worth billions to Lockheed Martin.
Lockheed Martin is the primary contractor for the F-35 program, making it the most direct beneficiary of any restoration. LMT reported FY2025 revenue of $75.0B (+5.6% YoY) with a 6.7% net margin and $21.49 diluted EPS. RTX, which supplies key components including engines through its Pratt & Whitney division, also stands to benefit, having posted $88.6B in revenue (+9.7% YoY) at an 8.0% net margin.
The second-order setup is meaningful: Turkey's re-entry into the F-35 program would represent a substantial incremental revenue event for LMT's aeronautics segment, which already anchors the company's top line. The geopolitical signal — a thaw in U.S.-Turkey defense ties — could also accelerate Turkish NATO cooperation and potentially open the door to additional defense procurement.
The bear tension is that NYT reports of White House intentions have historically faced delays, reversals, and congressional resistance. Congress has previously legislated barriers to Turkey's F-35 re-entry tied to the S-400 disposition, and any deal would likely require legislative action or a national-security waiver. The gap between Trump's stated intent and an actual signed contract could be wide.
Key things to watch: confirmation from the White House or State Department, any Congressional response, and whether Turkey agrees to address the S-400 issue as a precondition. LMT's next earnings event would be the earliest hard catalyst for guidance updates.
The case — both sides
Turkey's original ~100-aircraft commitment, if restored even partially, would represent multi-billion-dollar incremental backlog for LMT's aeronautics segment — a direct, quantifiable revenue event for a company already growing at 5.6% YoY.
Congressional statutes and the unresolved S-400 possession by Turkey remain hard legal barriers, and past White House signals on this topic have stalled at Capitol Hill, meaning Trump's 'readiness' may not translate into an actual contract for years.
The house read
Leans bullLMT and RTX face the question of whether Trump's reported F-35 offer to Turkey translates into a binding contract — and whether Congress will block it — or remains diplomatic signaling with no near-term revenue impact.
Wrong ifCongress has previously passed legislation blocking Turkey's F-35 re-entry without resolution of the S-400 issue; a legislative block or Turkish refusal to address S-400 terms would deflate the entire catalyst.
Published read · research, not advice