Bitcoin gauge tracking selling pressure moves into 'high-risk' zone as ETF demand slumps
1 min read
The story
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have accumulated a net 4,500 BTC YTD but May has reversed the buying pattern built through March and April, while on-chain selling pressure gauges move into 'high-risk' territory per Swissblock. The confluence of weakening institutional demand and elevated selling pressure creates a tactical short setup, with ETF flow trend as the cleaner real-time signal.
The case — both sides
The house read
Short IBIT tactically as ETF demand reversal in May + high-risk on-chain selling pressure gauge signals near-term BTC downside; target -8% on IBIT with tight stop above recent highs.
Wrong ifA sudden re-acceleration of ETF inflows (e.g. macro risk-on, regulatory positive surprise, or spot BTC breakout above key resistance) would quickly invalidate the short; no enrichment data available to sharpen entry or gauge consensus positioning.
Published read · research, not advice