Live markets: Bitcoin has traded below its mining cost for five months, squeezing miners
1 min read
The story
Bitcoin's prolonged stay below the all-in mining cost has pushed roughly one-fifth of the network's miners into unprofitability, triggering the largest forced BTC liquidation cycle since 2022. Publicly traded miners — MARA, CLSK, RIOT — collectively sold more than 32,000 BTC in Q1 2025 alone, surpassing the entire 2024 total, just to cover operating expenses. Revenue growth is real (MARA +38%, RIOT +72%, CLSK +102% YoY) but is being swamped by fixed power costs and depreciation; MARA and RIOT both carry net margins below -100%.
The second-order tension is a classic miner squeeze: rising hashrate from efficient operators forces out weaker hands, but the BTC selling from survivors creates persistent spot-market pressure. Watch for hashrate capitulation signals — when the least efficient rigs go offline, the survivors' economics improve sharply. CLSK's positive net margin (46%) makes it the relative outlier worth tracking as a canary on operating leverage if BTC stabilizes.
The case — both sides
If BTC price rebounds and hashrate capitulation removes the least efficient miners, surviving operators like CLSK — which already runs positive net margins — would see costs drop further while revenue surges, potentially driving a sharp re-rating in miner equities.
MARA and RIOT's triple-digit negative net margins, combined with record BTC selling just to meet operating costs, suggest balance-sheet erosion that revenue growth cannot offset at current BTC prices — making these equities vulnerable to further drawdowns even if BTC stabilizes.
The house read
Leans bearWith Bitcoin below mining cost for five months and miners force-selling record BTC, the question for MARA, RIOT, and CLSK is whether hashrate capitulation triggers a relief rally in miner equities or whether continued BTC overhang and deep negative margins push the weakest names toward distress.
Wrong ifA sharp BTC rally driven by ETF demand or macro risk-on could lift all miner equities indiscriminately, collapsing the spread and stopping out the short leg before fundamentals reassert. Additionally, MARA's large BTC treasury could spike its equity on any BTC price surge regardless of mining economics.
Published read · research, not advice